This independent report by Oxford Economics was commissioned by the TrackSAFE Foundation in 2024.
The report presents an analysis of the significant economic costs attributed to suspected and attempted suicide, trespass and other injuries and fatalities caused by collisions between trains and people that occurred on the Victorian passenger rail network between July 2022-June 2023.
The study examines multiple facets of these costs including expenses related to fatalities, injuries, delays in rail services, including their impact on commuters and emergency response efforts.
The report finds that rail incidents in Victoria cost the Victorian economy $314.2M in the 2023 financial year, with $54.1M of this attributable on V/Line operated lines and $260.1M attributable to incidents occurring on MTM operated lines. The daily cost to the Victorian economy because of these rail incidents is $860,822 ($148,219 on V/Line lines and $712,603 on MTM lines).
On MTM operated lines, the total cost of $260.1M includes costs resulting from fatalities of $114.1M (there were 22 deaths in this period), delays of $133.1M, injuries of $10.1M and other costs of $2.8M.
On V/Line operated lines, the total cost of $54.1M includes costs resulting from fatalities of $36.3M (there were 7 deaths in this period) followed by delays of $12.7M, injuries $4.1M and other costs $1M.
The analysis finds that nearly all incidents within the scope of the study were attributable to some form of trespass incident (this includes suspected suicides). As such, trespasser incidents also made up most delay costs.
The full report is available here.
The information below prepared by TrackSAFE contextualises this analysis and compares the economic cost of incidents as calculated by Oxford Economics with the cost of fencing the rest of the MTM network and higher risk locations on the V/line network
Of the 29 fatalities that occurred July 2022 – June 2023, 26 (20 of 22 MTM, 6 of 7 V/line) were suspected suicides. Suicide has historically been the leading cause of death on the heavy rail network in Victoria. Most incidents occur in the rail corridor between stations, locations with easy access. 50% of all suspected suicides on the Australian rail network occur in Victoria.
Research shows restricting access to the rail corridor through fencing, other barriers, and the removal of railway crossings[1] can prevent suicides by more than 90%[2] and is the most effective measure to prevent suicide in public places. Research also shows that once prevention interventions in public places are introduced, displacement is uncommon and that method substitution is unlikely.[3].
Restricting access to the rail corridor will also prevent trespass. Suspected and attempted suicides and trespass mostly occur close to residential areas. TrackSAFE has recommended to the Victorian Government that the Metro Trains Melbourne network is fully fenced and higher risk locations in outer suburban and regional locations on the V/Line network be fenced.
The MTM network is 998km[4] long. At September 2024 38% of the network has fencing that meets current MTM fencing guidelines. If just 20km of fencing was installed per year (the 2024 Government commitment), it will take 30 years for the fencing at standard to be complete. In these three decades, hundreds of people will likely die, hundreds if not thousands of rail workers will be impacted by trauma and tens of millions of Victorians will have their rail journeys delayed and disrupted. This should not be accepted as an inevitable aspect of operating a heavy rail network.
Fencing 60% of the MTM network is estimated to cost $224.6m[5], equating to 86% of the cost of 1 year of deaths, injuries and network disruptions, providing a suicide and trespass prevention benefit in perpetuity (assuming maintenance).
The V/Line network has multiple higher risk locations including outer areas of Melbourne and regional cities and towns. 100 kilometres of new fencing is estimated to cost $37.5m6, 69% of the cost of 1 year of deaths, injuries and network disruptions.
A substantially accelerated fencing program prioritised using a risk-based approach across Victoria including: fencing to the next station at the time of railway crossing removal projects; fencing ‘hot spots’ and other higher risk locations on the MTM network; fencing in outer areas of Melbourne, regional cities and towns and other high risk locations on the regional network; will reduce the frequency and severity of rail suspected and attempted suicide and trespass incidents. This will save lives, reduce trauma experienced by rail staff and others and improve the on-time reliability and efficiency of the network. It will lower future economic costs.
Based on the number of incidents and costs detailed in the Oxford Economics report and with no changes, over ten years, the economic cost of network disruptions to the Victorian economy is more than $3 Billion.
Fencing the remaining 60% of the Melbourne network and 100km in regional Victoria would cost approximately $262.1M – less than one year of costs from incidents (83%).
The cost benefit of an investment in fencing in purely economic terms is very clear. So too is the more difficult to quantify ongoing human benefits. This includes saving lives, preventing injuries, many with life-long consequences, keeping families, friends and colleagues together and avoiding grief and long-term trauma for all involved as well as rail workers.
December 2025
[1] Clapperton, A, Dwyer, J, Spittal, M, Roberts, L, Pirkis, J, 2022 Preventing railway suicides through level crossing removal: a multiple-arm pre-post study design in Victoria, Australia, Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology, July 2022, Vol 57 pp 2261-2266
[2] Pirkis, J., Too, L.S., Spittal, M. J., Krysinska, K., Robinson, J. & Cheung, Y. T. D. 2015. Interventions to reduce suicides at suicide hotspots: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Psychiatry 2, 994-1001.
[3] For example, Dwyer, J, Spittal, MJ, Scurrah, K, Pirkis, J, Bugeja, L & Clapperton, A, 2023. Structural intervention at one bridge decreases the overall jumping suicide rate in Victoria, Australia, Epidemiological and Psychiatric Sciences, Vol 32, 2023, e58, Victorian Coroner (2011). Inquest into VH. Reference 2254/10, Daigle, M.S., Suicide prevention through means restriction: assessing the risk of substitution. A critical review and synthesis. Accid Anal Prev, 2005. 37(4): p. 625–32.
[4] Metro Trains Melbourne 16/8/24
[5] Based on $375/m fencing construction cost & 599km fencing on MTM network &100km on the V/Line network.